Countering the China Threat in the Year of the Dragon

China aspires to become the world’s greatest superpower through “grey zone” activities, including predatory lending and business practices, systematic theft of intellectual property, and brazen cyber intrusions, according to the FBI. This final attack vector is extensive—comprising the whole of the Internet.

The FBI has assessed that counterintelligence and economic espionage efforts of the Peoples Republic of China (PRC) and Chinese Communist Party (CCP) target businesses, academic institutions, researchers, lawmakers, and the general public, presenting a “grave threat” to U.S. economic well-being and democracy.

Klon Kitchen, managing director at Beacon Global Strategies and nonresident senior fellow at the public policy think tank, American Enterprise Institute (AEI), warns about the growing sophistication and scale of Chinese cyber operations and how they pose significant risks not only to national security but also to the commercial sector.

China wields influence across the diplomatic, information, military, and economic spectrum.

“The surge in cyber incidents and the advanced tactics used by Chinese threat actors indicate that traditional defensive measures are no longer sufficient,” Kitchen writes. “Government and business leaders must innovate continuously, adopting dynamic cybersecurity frameworks that evolve as rapidly as the threats.”

For business leaders, this highlights the urgent need for heightened vigilance and comprehensive defensive measures.

China’s DIME Directive

China wields influence across the diplomatic, information, military, and economic (DIME) spectrum.

• Diplomacy: China’s goal is to eradicate the post-WWII world order and U.S.-led alliance structure so individual nations work with China one-on-one. Such a tactic grants China the advantage given its size and relative power to virtually every other country. To achieve this revisionist goal, China applies pressure on resisting states while incentivizing those that support its efforts. The country also wields influence through international diplomatic organizations such as the United Nations, where Beijing uses organizational rules to its own advantage.
  
  
• Information: China has deployed overt propaganda campaigns that promote its narrative along with cognitive warfare campaigns to undermine public confidence in governments and subvert undesirable narratives. The PRC pushes these narratives through its pervasive presence on social media across many platforms around the world, including—but not limited to—TikTok. Cyber expertise is leveraged for information manipulation, with efforts ranging from intellectual property theft to influencing opinions.
  
  
• Military: China’s quantity of production and quality of weapon systems is significant and makes them strong competitors in any domain. Its goal is to be the dominant military power throughout Asia and far beyond, replacing the United States in that role. Integration of Taiwan via any means is also part of its geo-strategic plan.
  
  
• Economic: Today, the United States still has the world’s largest gross domestic product (GDP) at approximately $25 trillion, with China close behind at $18 trillion. Projections are for China to equal or surpass the United States in GDP by the mid-2030s. China has considerable natural resources (including rare earth minerals), human capital, manufacturing capacity, transportation infrastructure, and access to worldwide markets. Beijing is taking actions across the globe to ensure its continued access to worldwide markets through initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). BRI is a strategy initiated by China to connect Asia with Africa and Europe via land and maritime networks, with the aim of improving regional integration, increasing trade, and stimulating economic growth. Some experts see the BRI as a possible Trojan horse for China-led regional development and military expansion. All of these factors add up to significant economic might—power Beijing uses to exert its will over other countries.

OSINT’s Role in Threat Detection

Businesses must actively monitor for Chinese subterfuge. Given the multitude of disorganized data that exists across the Internet in many languages beyond Mandarin, it is difficult to glean the necessary context for proper decision-making. In fact, this is a nearly impossible task without advanced technology.

Decluttering and operationalizing the information necessary for foreign threat analysis requires access to the latest tools, technologies, and best practices. Organizations need to leverage mass aggregation, automation, natural language processing, and artificial intelligence (AI)-based solutions.

Software that enables users to analyze typically hard-to-reach yet publicly available information (PAI) from key regions, such as East Asia, Eastern Europe, and the Middle East, empowers decision-making through knowledge. Knowing more about what is happening makes it possible to navigate global uncertainties and manage risks more effectively.

The insights that can be gathered via open source intelligence (OSINT) give organizations decision advantage. Localized intelligence from anywhere in the world helps security practitioners to more effectively identify and respond to emerging risks and opportunities.

Human-machine collaboration is important for organizations seeking to make informed decisions.

For example, consider the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the South China Sea caused by China’s aggression toward its neighbors. The escalating risks pose potential disruptions for businesses operating in or around this region, such as shipping companies or global enterprises. PAI analysis tools can provide organizations with timely data from local sources, social media, micro-blogging, and other on-the-ground channels, as well as internal, company generated data to identify possible cyber or physical threats. Armed with these insights, a shipping company, for example, could quickly spot emerging threats and reroute vessels away from conflict zones, ensuring safety and minimizing disruptions.

Enhance Employee Awareness and Empower Improved Decision-Making

For businesses concerned about China’s overt actions undermining their operations, educating staff to these threats and training them to act accordingly is key to effective decision-making. Companies should build data-driven capabilities into their workflows and processes, and incorporate them into day-to-day operations, planning, and training.

The automation enabled by AI makes it possible to process vast amounts of open-source data, resulting in a distillation of relevant information and signals that can be reviewed by company decisionmakers who can then apply the domain knowledge, contextual understanding, and critical thinking necessary to transform data into action. This human-machine collaboration is important for organizations seeking to make informed decisions.

Chinese Threats Command Vigilance

As China aims to expand its influence and competitive advantage with increasing sophistication and scale, business leaders need to adopt comprehensive defensive measures and heighten vigilance. To mitigate these threats, businesses must lean into OSINT tools for timely transformation of PAI into actionable information for data-driven decision-making and effective risk management.

McDaniel Wicker is senior vice president of strategic sales at Babel Street. He is a career intelligence professional and foreign policy expert, having served as a U.S. Air Force intelligence officer and the Asian security fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.

© McDaniel D. Wicker