Effects of War in Iran Spread Around the Globe
As the United States and Israel’s war against Iran approaches the two-week mark, the reach of the conflict continues to stretch worldwide.
Below we take a look at how the war is affecting the risk of terrorism, cyberattacks, and supply chain disruptions.
Acts and Threats of Terrorism
Two bombs exploded in separate incidents in Europe earlier this week. Neither explosion resulted in casualties. Threat actors in Oslo, Norway, targeted the U.S. embassy with an improvised explosive device. Authorities arrested three brothers, Norwegian citizens with links to Iraq, in connection with the attack. The BBC reported that authorities were examining a video in relation to the bombing. The video was published to Google Maps, now deleted, and featured Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the former leader of Iran who was killed in the first wave of attacks.
Threat actors carried out a separate second explosion on 9 March at a synagogue in Liege, Belgium. Authorities have not arrested any suspects, and the incident has not directly been linked to the war on Iran. The country’s interior minister said that Belgium would be taking additional protective measures around Jewish sites.
Europol’s head of communications, Jan op gen Oorth, told Euronews that
the war in Iran had “immediate repercussions for serious and organized
crime and terrorism in the EU. Key risks are an elevated threat of terrorism
and violent extremism, increased cyber attacks targeting EU infrastructure,
a rise in conflict-themed online fraud schemes, and the spread of
disinformation and influence campaigns.”
Shortly after the war started, the Council on Foreign Relations published an article from its counterterrorism and homeland security expert Bruce Hoffman examining Iran’s terror activities in the United States over the years.
He wrote that the U.S. Department of Homeland Security was established after the 9/11 attacks with anti-terror as its primary mission, but recently the department has reoriented itself to focus on illegal immigration.
“The United States is in an unprecedented dangerous situation when the Iranian regime’s desire to retaliate for the war and the killing of Khamenei could surface now or at any time in the future,” Hoffman wrote, noting that events like the 2026 World Cup and celebrations of the 250th anniversary of U.S. independence are ideal targets for Iranian terror attacks.
Reuters reported that as the U.S. military was building up in the Middle East in February, signaling an attack on Iran could be imminent, the FBI issued a security bulletin to law enforcement agencies that an attack could trigger retaliation in the form of surprise drone attacks in the U.S. state of California.
The bulletin “cited FBI information that as of early February, Iran ‘allegedly aspired to conduct a surprise attack using unmanned aerial vehicles’ launched from a sea vessel against targets in California ‘in the event that the US conducted strikes against Iran,’” Reuters reported.
The bulletin was described as one of many security updates the state receives from federal partners daily. Governor Gavin Newsom told Reuters he did not know of any imminent threats to California.
Cyberattacks
The Iranian-linked group Handala hacked Stryker, a global medical equipment manufacturer based in Kalamazoo, Michigan, on Thursday. The group used a data wipe attack, also known as a wiper, to delete information on devices connected to Stryker's network, including laptops and cellphones. Wiper attacks are designed to be destructive and do not result in extortion or ransom.
Handala posted messages on its Telegram channel saying it was responsible and that the attack on Stryker was in retaliation for the war in Iran.
Cybersecurity reporter Brian Krebs wrote that the hackers used a Microsoft service called Microsoft Intune to issue a remote wipe command against all connected devices.
Stryker has 56,000 employees worldwide, including 5,000 at a hub in Cork, Ireland, which was particularly hard hit. The company sent employees home as a result of the attack, and the Irish Examiner reported that several employees said that the incident shut down systems and wiped employee-held company devices.
CNN reported that U.S. officials sent a recent bullent to private companies, warning that “Ongoing claims and calls for cyber attacks targeting U.S. entities by Iranian-aligned groups could lead to an increase in malicious activity against the financial services sector… Historically, the U.S. financial sector has been viewed as a priority target and a target of opportunity by Iranian-aligned cyber actors.”
The report from CNN continued: “In another recent notice to U.S. defense contractors, the FBI and National Security Agency warned that ‘Iranian-affiliated cyber actors may target U.S. devices and networks for near-term cyber operations,’ noting that defense-related companies, ‘particularly those possessing holdings or relationships with Israeli research and defense firms, are at an increased risk.’”
The Latest on Evacuations
After an initial period of frenzied chaos, evacuations from the Gulf region have become more systematic.
Earlier this week the U.S. State Department authorized up to $40 million of emergency funds for evacuation flights out of the region. In general, people evacuated by the U.S. government are required to reimburse the government for passage; however, that requirement has been waived for the ongoing conflict, according to The Hill.
U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Dylan Johnson said in a statement on Monday that 36,000 American citizens had been safely returned to the United States since the war began.
“At this time, seats available on the department’s charter options are significantly greater than the demand from Americans in the region,” Johnson said. “Many Americans continue to depart on commercial options. Most Americans who have requested assistance have declined assistance when offered, opting either to remain in country or book commercial flight options.”
France continues to work to repatriate its citizens who were in the region when the war started. Le Monde reported that 42,500 people in the region have registered with the French Foreign Affairs Ministry. Of those, 7,500 requested help to return to France.
“The vast majority are travelers who had been vacationing in the region or who were on a stopover when the military operation launched by Israel and the U.S. against Iran began,” Le Monde reported. “With airports closing and a large number of flights canceled due to risks linked to ongoing military operations, organizing their return has become a real logistical headache for the Foreign Affairs Ministry.”
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi was quick to make evacuation preparations for Japanese citizens in the region when the conflict started. She announced she had “instructed relevant ministries and agencies to thoroughly gather information and to take all necessary measures to ensure the safety of Japanese nationals remaining there.”
The Japanese Foreign Ministry formed an emergency response team to coordinate the process, and hundreds of people have been repatriated.
“The evacuations illustrate how Tokyo is increasingly prepared to deploy government and military assets overseas to protect its nationals during major crises,” The Japan Times reported.
Broader, Regional Conflict
Soon after the United States and Israel attacked Iran, it counterattacked not only Israel, but its Gulf neighbors. The attacks targeted U.S. military installations, infrastructure, hotels, and oil industry facilities in Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Cyprus, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
Iran attacked the UAE’s Dubai airport on Wednesday, followed by an attack Thursday on the Bahrain airport.
Iran also said a missile hit its Bank Sepah, and as a result, it would begin targeting financial companies from the United States with offices in the region.
“Citi, the global bank, told its staff to immediately depart what had been its longtime regional headquarters in the packed skyscrapers of Dubai’s International Financial Center,” The New York Times reported.
London-based Standard Chartered and HSBC also made arrangements to ensure their offices in the region were empty.
In addition, Iran issued a threat against American technology companies, saying they, too, would be targeted. Google, IBM, Microsoft, Nvidia, Oracle, and Palantir were reportedly threatened specifically.
The threat came after Iranian drone strikes already damaged three Amazon Web Services (AWS) facilities in UAE and Bahrain on 1 March. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard took responsibility, saying the attack was on legitimate military targets because AWS supports the U.S. military.
Meanwhile, Israel continued to target what it says are Iranian-supported terror and military assets in the wider region. An Israeli bomb hit a building in central Beirut, Lebanon, on Thursday. Israel had posted a warning saying they would hit a Hezbollah facility in the area.
The United Nations Security Council condemned Iran’s attacks on its Persian Gulf neighbors. China and Russia abstained from the vote, leaving 13 of 15 member states on the council that voted in favor. The resolution was joined by 135 other nations.
In a statement attributed to Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the slain Iranian leader who was selected as Iran’s new supreme leader, Iran vowed to continue the attacks on other countries in the region.
Oil, Economics, and the Strait of Hormuz
Last week, Security Management examined the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz to the global supply chain—particularly the oil supply chain—and how the war had effectively closed the passageway. That closure shows no signs of reopening any time soon.
Reuters reported that Iranian shipments of oil,, 13.7 million barrels, have made it through the strait while almost all other traffic has ceased. James Lightbourn, a shipping financier and founder of a maritime investing and advisory business, told Reuters that the Iranian oil shipments were likely getting through because their passage provides an incentive for Iran to not place mines that would completely shutdown maritime activity in the strait.
“If the U.S. were seizing tankers, it would give Iran less to lose by shutting the strait entirely,” Lightbourn said.
However, CNN reported that Iran has begun mining the strait anyway, though “the mining is not extensive yet.” The United States has responded by eliminating at least 16 Iranian mine-laying vessels, according to an X post by U.S. Central Command on 10 March.
The disruption in oil supplies caused a spike in the price of oil, which climbed above $100 a barrel and has bounced up and down near that high range ever since. Countries in Asia are hit especially hard by supply constraints of Middle East oil and are taking various measures as a result: South Korea capped gas prices at the pump, India suspended gas-based cremations, Pakistan increased gas prices to dampen demand from regular motors while keeping diesel costs low to protect shipping and mass transit, the Philippines instituted a four-day work week, and Bangladesh rationed fuel and shut down universities.
Countries around the world have also pledged to release oil from their strategic reserve. Countries participating in the International Energy Agency, which includes the United States, many European countries, Japan, Mexico, Australia, and others, said they would release 400 million barrels from their emergency reserves.
Such a release from strategic reserves dwarfs the largest previous release: 182.7 million barrels when Russian invaded Ukraine in 2022.
Should the war become a prolonged conflict, The Wall Street Journal found that Gulf states could face economic declines as much as 15 percent. Europe and Asia, excluding China, would also be particularly hard hit, though for different reasons: Asia because it depends on Middle East oil; Europe because it is particularly vulnerable to escalating energy prices even if it does not import much fuel from the Middle East.
The United States and China, the Journal reported, would see lower growth but the effects would be more limited than harder hit regions.
Canada, oil-producing countries in Latin America, and Russia stand to gain the most if there is a prolonged conflict.
