Terrorism Trends Fueled by Sahel Conflicts, Western Lone Actor Attacks
Between four major terrorist groups and a wave of lone actor attacks, terrorism continues to persist and spread, reversing nearly a decade of improvements documented by the Institute for Economics and Peace’s (IEP) Global Terrorism Index (GTI).
The 12th annual version of the report, released today, showed that the number of countries experiencing at least one terrorist incident in 2024 increased from 58 to 66—the most countries affected since 2018. Last year, more countries deteriorated than improved for the first time in seven years, with 45 countries reporting a higher impact from terrorism. There were 3,492 total terrorist attacks recorded in 2024.
Global terrorism deaths remained consistent with 2023 when the report factored out the 1,195 people killed during the 7 October 2023 attacks in Israel. The nations where the most deaths from terrorism occurred last year included Burkina Faso, Pakistan, and Syria.
“Terrorism increased substantially in both Russia and Iran, highlighting the deteriorating security situation,” the report said. The attack on a concert at Crocus City Hall in Moscow, Russia, was the fourth deadliest attack of the year (144 people killed), and Islamic State-Khorasan Province claimed responsibility for it.
"This year’s Global Terrorism Index highlights two key concerns; firstly, 98 percent of all terrorist deaths occurred in conflict zones, with 2024 recording the highest number of conflicts since the end of the WWII,” said Steve Killelea, founder and executive chairman of the IEP, in a press release. “Secondly, social tensions and dissatisfaction within the West are fueling lone actor terrorism. Ninety-three percent of all fatal terrorist attacks were caused by lone actors. The best way to control terrorism is to stop or reduce the number of conflicts. In addition, the Gaza conflict has been, and still is, a catalyst for antisemitism and Islamophobia.”
The Global Terrorism Epicenter
In the last two decades, the epicenter of terrorism has moved from the Middle East and North African into the Sahel region of sub-Saharan Africa, the report said.
Deaths due to terrorism in the Sahel region of Africa have increased nearly tenfold since 2009. The region accounts for 51 percent of all terrorism deaths in 2024 and 19 percent of all attacks. Six out of the 10 countries in the region recorded at least one terrorism-related fatality. Three of the year’s deadliest attacks took place in the Sahel.
“Weak governance, ethnic tensions, and ecological degradation have fueled terrorism, worsened by transnational jihadist growth and geopolitical competition,” the report said.
Niger in particular has faced extreme inconsistency in its terrorism rates. The number of deaths in Niger fell sharply from 2021 (595 deaths) to 2022 (198), but the rate rose dramatically during the next two years. In 2024, 930 people were killed in terrorist attacks in Niger—the highest number ever recorded in the country.
Terrorism in the region can be linked to natural resource exploitation, especially mines for gold and other precious minerals like lithium. Terrorist groups seek to control the areas where artisanal, unregulated mining occurs and collect taxes from miners. This lucrative business model can spur fierce competition between crime groups.
“Illegal activities need to be kept secret, so they depend on people within the state to protect them,” the report explains. “In countries with weak governments, smuggling networks lead to competition among those who can offer protection and make money from these activities. This competition can cause violence as different groups fight to control the territory, and the profits. This struggle for control can then lead to instability in the state.”
Western Lone Attackers Driven by Political Motivation
Between 2017 and 2024, the total number of yearly terrorism attacks in the West fell by 70 percent and deaths fell by 90 percent. Most terrorist attacks in Western nations have been either politically motivated or have no clear ideological motivation.
“Recent events have led to concerns about a resurgence in jihadist attacks in the West,” the report said. “The most recent incident occurring in early January 2025, when an individual who had pledged allegiance to [the Islamic State (IS)] drove a truck into a crowd in New Orleans, killing 15 people. It was an attack reminiscent of the wave of IS inspired terrorism seen in the West in the mid-2010s. There have also been fears that the war in Gaza would lead to an increase in terrorist activity in Europe. Security services in Europe foiled several planned terrorist attacks in December 2023. These attacks were linked to Hamas, with some reported to have been targeting Jewish institutions in Germany.”
There has been a sharp increase in anti-Semitic violence and hate crimes in Western nations, including attacks on synagogues in Europe, Australia, and the United States.
“Although most attacks in the West were carried out by unidentified groups, target analysis suggests that almost 31 percent of all attacks in the West in 2024 were motivated by anti-Semitic or anti-Israel sentiment,” the report said. “While these attacks did not result in any deaths, the trends highlight the ongoing spread and evolving motivations of terrorism as a threat to the West.”
Politically motivated violence and terrorism are also a concern. “For almost 200 years, the predominant form of political violence in the U.S. was violent rioting, followed by lynching,” the GTI said, citing data from the U.S. Political Violence Database. “However, over the past 40 years, almost all incidents of fatal politically motivated violence in the U.S. have been terrorist attacks. From 2020 to 2024, 75 percent of fatal political violence incidents in the U.S. were terrorist attacks, up from 48 percent between 1975-1979.”
While far-left groups were responsible for more terrorist attacks in the West in the past decade, far-right terrorism was more lethal, with 292 people killed between 2017 and 2024.
Few attacks could be attributed to any particular group. In 2024, for instance, 65 percent of Western terrorist attacks could not be tied to any specific group or ideology.
“While part of this increase can simply be attributed to a lack of information about certain attacks, it may also reflect the rise of ideologically confused or unclear attacks, reflecting the broader political and social uncertainty,” the GTI said.
“Lone-actor terrorists often construct their own ideologies by piecing together elements from various, and sometimes contradictory, belief systems,” the report continued. “This blending of ideologies isn’t about strict allegiance to a single group or cause but rather reflects an attempt to justify violent actions. This approach complicates counterterrorism efforts, as it makes these actors unpredictable and harder to profile.”
Terrorists completed 98 attacks in the European Union in 2023 and were involved in a total of 120 incidents—marking a significant increase from the 28 attacks logged in 2022, according to an annual Europol assessment. https://t.co/Kkaa6xYmRS
— Security Management (@SecMgmtMag) December 18, 2024
This approach also connects with younger potential attackers. In the UK, 42 percent of last year’s 219 terror arrests were under 18 years of age, reflecting a broader trend where youths account for more terror suspects. IEP’s researchers also noted that Western attackers are being radicalized through social media, gaming platforms, and encrypted messaging apps.
“The shift towards online radicalization has enabled potential terrorists to access extremist content and organize with minimal physical contact,” according to IEP’s press release about the report. “Algorithmic radicalization on popular social media sites can drive users toward progressively more extreme content over time.”
Major Terrorism Groups Persist
Four major terrorist organizations intensified their violence last year, with an 11 percent rise in fatalities. The Islamic State, Jamaat Nusrat Al-Islam wal Muslimeen, Tehrek-e-Taliban Pakistan, and al-Shabaab were responsible for 4,204 terrorism deaths last year—amounting to 80 percent of deaths that were attributed to a specific group.
The Islamic State (IS) expanded its operations to 22 countries and caused 1,805 deaths. Tehrik-e-Taliban was the fastest-growing terrorist group, with a 90 percent increase in attributed deaths (558 deaths).
🚨IS remains a global threat, expanding operations to 22 countries across the Middle East, Africa, Asia & Europe.
— Global Peace Index (@GlobPeaceIndex) March 5, 2025
Despite #counterterrorism efforts, its ability to inspire & execute attacks showcases its resilience & evolving operational strategies.
➡️https://t.co/Mqxckn3xEA pic.twitter.com/wzAG9MkRNL
Tabulating deaths attributed to specific groups can be challenging, though, the report said. Prominent organizations have many affiliate groups and subdivisions operating in conflict zones, and the parent group might decline to take responsibility for those subgroups’ attacks.
“For attacks with minimal impact, terrorist groups may see little benefit in taking responsibility, as such incidents could be perceived as failures, undermining their influence,” the report said. “Conversely, groups responsible for highly lethal attacks may avoid claiming them to prevent backlash from governments or local populations, which could hinder recruitment efforts and provoke intensified counterinsurgency operations against them.
“The high level of unattributed attacks means that the total number of deaths for which certain terrorist groups are responsible is likely to be much higher than the officially attributed figure,” the GTI continued.
