A Flock of Black Swans: Preparing for the Behavioral Consequences of a Polycrisis
Security practitioners are living in a truly dizzying operating environment, with simultaneous, overlapping crises putting their operational and personal resilience at risk.
Nassim Taleb’s 2007 bestseller The Black Swan helped popularize the concept of the black swan as a metaphor that describes an unexpected event of large magnitude and potentially global consequences. Such events can have a massive systemic impact, as well as direct negative consequences for individuals, communities, and organizations. By definition, black swan events are rare and isolated.
Security, crisis management, and business continuity professional challenge themselves to envision these novel threats, hopefully avoiding the type of “failure of imagination” that the 9/11 Commission identified as a root cause of the catastrophic terrorist attacks on the United States. While it is difficult to anticipate black swans, it is exponentially more challenging to envisage the impact of a flock of black swans, or what is increasingly referred to as a polycrisis.
Coming to Grips with Polycrisis
The concept of a polycrisis was first introduced by the French philosopher Edgar Morin and co-author Anne Brigitte Kern in their 1999 book Homeland Earth: A Manifesto for a New Millennium. Morin and Kern described polycrisis as “interwoven and overlapping crises” affecting humanity and said that the greatest challenge facing the global community was not any single hazard but rather the effect of interconnected and cascading crises that could pose an existential threat.
Polycrisis is the simultaneous occurrence of several catastrophic events. These events overlap and intersect, making them even more dangerous than any one disaster or emergency would be on its own.
There is some debate about the concept of polycrisis, with arguments that history is filled with examples of multiple, overlapping crises: for example, the convergence of events in the early 1900s including the Spanish Flu pandemic, World War I, the Dust Bowl, and the Great Depression. But polycrisis theorists says our current environment is different and even more volatile due to the explosive growth in global population, material consumption, and what some are calling the great acceleration. Just following global news, it would seem that crises are accelerating, amplifying each other, and increasingly co-occurring, producing a very different operating environment.
While the systemic impacts of polycrisis are not fully understood, even less is known about the psychological consequences, especially for individuals and teams who are engaged in safety, security, and business continuity. Some theorists believe that a polycrisis is, in part, defined by change outpacing comprehension, reality exceeding imagination, and our general inability to understand what is happening in the world today. A polycrisis can be dizzying.
The frequency, duration, and complexity of crisis events in a polycrisis environment can stress critical personnel in ways that can compromise their wellbeing and their performance, potentially undermining mission success. The psychological stress associated with a polycrisis can reasonably be expected to increase mental and physical morbidity and mortality, increase negative cognitive bias, decrease social cohesion, and bring other latent physical and emotional problems to the surface. These potential effects are likely outcomes of more frequent emergencies.
Polycrisis as a phenomenon has also been referred to as permacrisis and while it may seem like only a matter of semantics, distinguishing between the two terms is important when considering the psychological impact. The prefix poly- suggests that multiple crises may be occurring simultaneously, while perma- describes the permanent nature of a situation and implies that the current conditions could be viewed as one endless event. Humans manage single, short exposures to extreme stress far better than constant or chronic stress.
Researchers have suggested that polycrises are “comprised of the synchronous or consecutive occurrence of various crises, with no intervening phases of stability.” Even though crisis events may occur in close succession, they are still discrete events. Polycrisis is not just one long stressful period, but rather a chain of ongoing challenges with little or no recovery time between.
When confronted with acute stressors, the body and mind temporarily rise to the occasion— increasing adrenaline, decreasing sleep, and amping up energy so that you can handle the challenges at hand. We are not as well suited to handle chronic stress. Over time, chronic stress gradually increases resting heart rates, blood pressure, breathing rates, and levels of muscle tension, so the body must work harder even when at rest to keep functioning normally.
Psychologically and physiologically, we respond to a prolonged period of stress and anxiety the only way our brains and bodies know how—we acclimate and adjust to maintain some level of balance to cope with challenges we are not otherwise well-suited to handle. Psychologically, we do better with sprints than marathons. With the increase in the frequency, intensity, and duration of natural disasters, emergency workers, for example, are reporting chronic disaster fatigue, as evidenced by staffing shortage at FEMA.
Levels of Operational Stress
A flood of high-stress events can have profound effects on the performance and wellness of leaders, decision-makers and front-line employees involved in security, emergency and crisis management. The U.S. Navy has pioneered efforts to understand and help mitigate the effects of such high-stress scenarios by exploring the concept of operational stress.
Operational stress is the expected and predictable emotional, intellectual, physical, or behavioral reactions of personnel who have been exposed to stressful events in direct or indirect military, security, or emergency management operations. The concept does not imply any sort of weakness or psychopathology in those who experience serious stress reactions when challenged with an overwhelming tempo in extreme situations. One of the most critical concepts associated with operational stress control is task saturation.
Task saturation is the experience of too much to do with not enough time, not enough tools, and not enough resources. It can be real or imagined, but in the end, it can have the same effect. When the sum of these tasks exceeds an individual’s capability to deal with them effectively, they become task saturated and unable to perform any one of the tasks proficiently. One of the most important concerns is that as task saturation increases, performance decreases and executional errors increase. Reduced situational awareness and a possible increase in errors can result in fatal outcomes including physical and mental harm, and potentially mission failure.
Working to keep up with the demands of a steady stream of crises with little respite or recovery time can be exhausting, and the early pioneers in stress research realized that there is a breaking point associated with chronic stress. Operational stress involves a continuum of potential behavioral reactions, associated with extreme stress, ranging from healthy and functional to psychological injured and ill.
Healthy: Normal functioning. Normal mood fluctuations; takes things in stride; consistent perforamnce; normal sleep patterns; physically and socially active; usual self-confidence; comfortable with others.
Reacting: Common and reversible distress. Irritable/impatient; nervousness, sadness, or increased worrying; procrastination or forgetfulness; trouble sleeping (more often in falling asleep); lowered energy; difficulty relaxing; intrusive thoughts; decreased social activity.
Injured: Significant functional impairment. Anger and anxiety; lingering sadness, tearfulness, hopelessness, or worthlessness; preoccupation; decreased performance in academics or work; significantly disturbed sleep (falling asleep and staying asleep); avoidance of social situations; withdrawal.
Ill: Clinical disorder, severe and persistent functional impairment. Significant difficulty with emotions or thinking; high levels of anxiety, panic attacks, depressed mood, or feeling overwhelmed; constant fatigue; disturbed contact with reality; significant disturbances in thinking; suicidal thoughts, intent, or behavior.
In its most serious forms, operational stress can be debilitating and impair an individual’s ability to continue his or her work. Reactions may rise to the level of diagnosable mental health disorders requiring professional intervention.
Operational Stress Control
The concept of operational stress is based on the assumption that stress is a recognized element in all operating environments to varying degrees. In a polycrisis, operational stress becomes a very significant element. Even though a black swan event may be a surprise, the likely stress response is foreseeable and expected, and therefore can be effectively managed.
Gordon Graham, an international risk management expert, is well known for his statement: “If it is predictable, it is preventable.” Operational stress is a predictable feature of polycrisis. The approach to mitigating these effects is referred to as operational stress control. Good planning should anticipate the psychological consequences of the polycrisis environment and seek to minimize disruptions to operations, while preserving the wellness and performance of key personnel.
Operational stress control requires a range of interventions at multiple levels in the pre-event, event, and post-event phases. Operational stress control focuses both on the environment, the team, and the individual. A clear organizational structure with defined roles and responsibilities for crisis responders, team leads, supervisors, and managers reduces the potential for extreme stress reactions.
To be most effective, managers must be familiar with the many facets of operational stress and implement a range of actions to integrate stress control strategies in the workplace. It is necessary to adopt a proactive perspective that allows both individual employees and the organization to anticipate stressors and strategically shape responses, rather than simply reacting when extreme stress situations occur.
Operational stress is a predictable feature of polycrisis.
While that may seem like common sense, there are recognized barriers to operational stress control. Those working in security, emergency management, and related roles often consider stress tolerance a badge of honor and may push themselves to maintain their image or reputation. Discussions about self-care or mental wellness can been seen as “soft” and support is often rejected. Individuals may be reluctant to reach out for help due to the stigma associated with all things related to mental health, possible harm to an individual’s career, intolerance for weakness of any kind in oneself or others, or the belief that stress-related problems only happen to the weak. Individuals may seek to conceal the fact that they are struggling with stress until it becomes obvious to those around them. Some individuals may be so affected by stress that they cannot recognize that their performance or wellness is suffering. Others must get involved.
Leaders and teammates must assume shared responsibility for promoting a positive and healthy operational environment; they cannot rely exclusively on individuals to initiate their own self-care practices. This is especially true in the context of polycrisis, when stress can seem unrelenting. Operational stress control is not exclusively the job of employee assistance providers or mental health professionals; everyone has a role to play. In the interest of sustaining or resuming operations, protecting personnel and assets during peak levels of stress, leaders and team members must be familiar with the causes and effects of operational stress, the warning signs of extreme stress reactions, and strategies and techniques for managing stress.
Operational stress control is most effective when it is applied simultaneously at three levels:
- Self-awareness and recognition of personal stress reactions by the individual
- Buddy-care in the form of recognition of behavioral changes and stress reactions by teammates and coworkers
- By supervisors and team leaders being vigilant for changes in the stress levels of individual team members, the team as a whole, and the operating environment
In the emerging polycrisis environment, leaders can support and preserve their team’s wellness and performance and ensure mission success by:
- Recognizing the unique stresses associated with the evolving threat landscape
- Making operational stress control an integral part of the culture and practices of the organization
- Provide training and support for operational stress recognition and response
- Empower individuals and teams to engage in self-care and buddy care
- Model attitudes and actions that reduce stigma around giving and getting help with stress-related reactions
- Actively monitor the changing work environment and adjust operational stress control efforts accordingly
Security management, emergency management and business continuity professionals—as well as their organizations owe a duty of care for employees who are exposed to different hazards. Operational stress is a foreseeable hazard in a polycrisis environment. In the face of simultaneous and overlapping crises, personnel under extreme stress may be operating at a reduced capacity and might not be able to fully support the organization’s mission.
Leaders should consider operational stress control as a form of physical and psychological force protection and keep in mind the need to preserve the functioning, health, and well-being of employees working in an exceptional stress environment, including a polycrisis.
Steve Crimando, MA, CTM, is an emergency behavioral health clinician, educator and crisis responder. He is the founder and principal of Behavioral Science Applications LLC, and a member of the steering committees for the ASIS International Extremism and Political Instability Community (EPIC) and the Human Threat Management Community.
Crimando is a Certified Threat Manager (CTM) with the Association of Threat Assessment Professionals (ATAP) and a Certified Master Trainer for the U.S. Department of Homeland Security National Threat Evaluation and Reporting (NTER) program. He was deployed to both the 9/11 and 1993 World Trade Center attacks, the Northeast anthrax screening center, and many other disasters and acts of terrorism. Crimando provides crisis intervention and violence prevention training and support to multinational businesses, law enforcement, intelligence, and military organizations, as well as IGOs and NGOs, worldwide.
