Marin: Be an Active Defender Against Authoritarianism to Address Global Threats
Former Finland Prime Minister Sanna Marin called on the private security sector to be active participants and defenders against authoritarian regimes and the larger threats that face the world today in an address at GSX 2024.
Speaking from the Orange County Convention Center in Orlando, Florida, on Monday, 23 September, Marin drew from her experiences as a politician in Finland to illustrate to security professionals the need to be less naïve in their mindsets, actions, and intentions when analyzing and dealing with these larger threats.
“Whether it’s cyberattacks, geopolitical conflicts, natural disasters, or unexpected crises like pandemics, new threats can arise with little warning,” Marin said. “This unpredictability underlines the importance of building resilience into our systems and societies so that we are not only prepared for known risks, but also able to adapt and recover when unforeseen events occur.”
The End of History
By the early 1990s, there was a growing belief among Western nations that liberal democracies were the preference for the larger global population, Marin explained.
The Berlin Wall had come down. And several previously authoritarian nations in Asia, Central Europe, Eastern Europe, Latin America, and Sub-Saharan Africa were shifting towards democracies with open elections, she added.
There was also faith in the idea that economic and diplomatic engagement with remaining non-democratic nations would help spread democratic practices and ideals, with the assumption that other leaders would see the logic in prioritizing economic prosperity.
“This also applied to how we started to define security threats. We thought that priorities like national honor, cultural preferences, and ethnic customs would give way to trade growth, as well as other aspects of the Western model,” Marin said. “But we were wrong.”
Marin specifically pointed to Russia’s 2022 invasion and subsequent war with Ukraine as an example. Prior to Russia’s act of aggression, for instance, Marin said other nations expected Russia to respect sovereign nation borders because of the economic consequences of starting a war.
Those assumptions were wrong, however, as Marin added that Russia appears to only recognize borders of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member countries.
“Starting a war or even disengaging from the global trade system is economically irrational due to the immense human and financial costs,” she said.
But authoritarian regimes operate under a different logic, she added, one that doesn’t value economic gains as much as other ideologies.
The Normality Bias
The normality bias refers to the tendency of underestimating the likelihood and impact of negative events, leading someone to believe that things will continue as usual, regardless of any clear signs of danger.
“It means that people have the tendency to get stuck in familiar patterns of thought, even when they may not be appropriate for the situation at hand,” Marin said. “…Right now, we really cannot afford it.”
Presently, security practitioners may be biased in believing that authoritarian regimes will suddenly be motivated by free trade and economic gains. Practitioners may also be biased to assume that a nation or industry’s reliance on a resource or product from an authoritarian nation will not be leveraged against them.
Don’t Just Trade—Invest and Advance
Prior to imposing sanctions on Russia in response to the invasion, Finland began scaling down its reliance on Russian imports, such as natural gas. Finland switched to other energy solutions and invested in its own infrastructure, instead of ramping up imports of liquified natural gas (LNG) from other countries or using the Balticconnector pipeline.
Investments in national abilities and resources can also counter Russia’s efforts to decrease support for Ukraine, according to Marin. Russia uses its economic ties and its standing as a gas supplier to other Western nations as a weapon. European citizens struggle with inflation and rising energy prices, bringing indirect impacts from the war into their everyday lives.
“It is important to understand that this is a political move. A way of using our own belief in pure free trade to weaken public support for Ukraine. And it has been effective,” Marin said.
Western nations need to invest in internal resources and promote innovations to decrease reliance on authoritarian regimes.
“In order to avoid creating a new dependency, it is critical that we shift our focus inward, investing in our own people, education, and research and development,” Marin said. “…Investing in our own talent is key to long-term technological leadership.”
Resilience is the cumulative effect of a culture that values education, trust, sustainability, and collective responsibility.
While noting that investments can result in greater economic developments and support human rights within nations that promote these values, Marin also pointed to artificial intelligence and other technologies that are reshaping economies and societies.
“If we rely on non-democratic countries for these innovations, we risk falling behind in the global technology race,” Marin explained. “This reliance not only limits our ability to be at the forefront of technological advancements, but also makes it more difficult to combat climate change with green innovation.”
Climate Change Inaction
Like the rest of the world, Finland had to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. As prime minister, Marin grappled with supporting first responders and keeping residents safe.
The scope of the virus’s impact resonated in her outlook on climate change, cautioning that another pandemic could happen as global temperatures rise—increasing the likelihood of outbreaks and epidemics.
Beyond exacerbating infectious diseases and zoonotic viruses, left unaddressed climate change will generate greater conflicts stemming from imbalanced ecosystems, decreased biodiversity, and an increase in food insecurity. The increase in unpredictability from shifting weather patterns and ecosystems will impact nations, populations, and industries.
“The risks of inaction are too great to ignore,” Marin said.
Weaponizing the Internet
Marin also pointed to another global force—the Internet. While it’s a tool that can be used to connect, educate, and support free market values, Marin noted that it’s also become a weapon for authoritarian regimes.
The most obvious example is that of disinformation campaigns waged by nations like Russia, especially around elections. Russia leveraged a heavy disinformation effort to sway the elections in Slovakia in support of Robert Ficov, an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, during the October 2023 election.
Starting a war or even disengaging from the global trade system is economically irrational due to the immense human and financial costs.
Propaganda that was pro-Russia, lies about Ukraine, and hate speech towards migrants bombarded voters in Slovakia. Marin noted that Reset, a non-profit organization, tracked hundreds of thousands of disinformation posts on social media shortly before the election.
Not only can such campaigns compromise democratic governments—failing to allow a well-informed populace to make decisions based on facts—but they can also erode free markets.
At the end of her speech, Marin offered a lesson from her homeland. As a nation and people, Finland values trust and reliability. She said that these values contribute to their resilience and have supported the ability to adapt throughout the nation’s history. Marin hopes that by building trust together, societies can weather any storm and threat.
“Resilience is not the result of any single policy or tradition. Resilience is the cumulative effect of a culture that values education, trust, sustainability, and collective responsibility,” Marin said. “I believe that resilience is…about building systems and societies and companies that are flexible, inclusive, and strong enough to withstand and recover from the unexpected.”
Sara Mosqueda is associate editor at Security Management, which publishes the GSX Daily. Connect with her at [email protected] or on LinkedIn.
