Armed Conflicts and Shrinking Humanitarian Aid Drive Acute Food Instability in Key Hotspots

Nearly 35 million people in Nigeria could face severe hunger by the middle of 2026, driven by widespread violence, banditry, and terrorism, as well as shrinking humanitarian aid, according to United Nations's projections.

Today, 27 million Nigerians experience severe hunger, but current conditions—including recent mass kidnappings—could spread fear and push more people into dangerous food insecurity.

“People are living in fear; they are not traveling from one place to another,” Nigerian agricultural economics professor Anthony Onoja told The New York Times. “Moving food from an area of surplus to an area of scarcity is an issue because people are afraid of being kidnapped when they are transporting the food commodities or farm produce that they have.”

Nigeria is not officially at war, but attacks by different groups have killed more than 8,000 civilians this year, the Times reported. The violence has been especially intense in central Nigeria, which produces much of the country’s crops. In the past two years, the violence displaced more than 500,000 people—almost all of whom were farmers.

“Communities are under severe pressure from repeated attacks and economic stress,” said David Stevenson, the World Food Program’s representative in Nigeria, in a statement. “If we can’t keep families fed and food insecurity at bay, growing desperation could fuel increased instability with insurgent groups exploiting hunger to expand their influence, creating a security threat that extends across West Africa and beyond.”

Earlier this month, the UN’s World Food Program (WFP) and Food and Agriculture Organizations (FAO) released an early warning report about acute food insecurity for the next six months. The FAO-WFP report found that acute food insecurity is deepening in 16 hunger hotspots, threatening to drive millions more people into famine or risk of famine. Conflict, economic shocks, extreme weather, and critical funding shortfalls are exacerbating the conditions.

The report ranks hunger hotspots on three levels, starting with hotspots: countries or territories where acute food insecurity is likely to worsen significantly in the next six months. Hotspots of very high concern feature sizable populations (more than 500,000 people or more than 10 percent of the population) likely to facing emergency levels of food insecurity. Hotspots of the highest concern include areas facing famine and populations already in catastrophic food insecurity.

During the outlook period from November 2025 to May 2026, conflict and other forms of armed violence are a primary driver in 14 out of the 16 hotspots.

“Conflict and violence drive acute food insecurity in multiple mutually reinforcing ways, including through the displacement of civilians, the destruction of food systems and constraints on humanitarian access,” the report said. “By the end of 2024, conflict and violence had displaced a record 123 million people, reducing food production capacity and increasing pressure on local resources and food markets in host communities. Looking ahead, food systems are likely to remain under threat as violence disrupts agricultural production and market functioning, driving up food prices in conflict-affected areas. Insecurity and shifting frontlines are further expected to deepen acute food insecurity among the most vulnerable populations, hinder humanitarian access and constrain the delivery of life-saving food assistance.”

In remarks to the UN Security Council, UN Deputy Secretary-General Amina J. Mohammed said, “War and hunger are often two faces of the same crisis. The lived reality for hundreds of millions trapped in conflict zones bears this out with brutal clarity. Bullets and bombs obliterate the fields where food grows, the markets where people trade, the roads that connect farmers to families. And hunger strikes back with equal force. 

“Empty bellies fuel desperation, desperation fuels displacement and violence, and the result is instability and often the destruction of the very systems that produce food.”

She added that “this council’s mandate is maintenance of international peace and security, and there can be neither peace where people are starving, nor security where hunger drives conflict.”

Nations are also facing severe climate shocks, including both flooding and severe drought and dry conditions, which can exacerbate food insecurity and drive displacement. Seasonal forecasts indicate widespread anomalies in the outlook for the next six months, including drier-than-average conditions in East Africa and North Africa, and wetter-than-average conditions anticipated across the Sahel and parts of East Africa—all of which could negatively affect crops.

“East Africa remains highly vulnerable,” the report said. “In South Sudan, floods pose a major threat, with up to 1.6 million people at risk as the Nile and its tributaries overflow, while rainfall deficits in eastern areas are expected to reduce cereal production, exacerbating already extreme food insecurity. Somalia and Kenya are forecast to face another below‑average rainy season, threatening crops and pastures.”

Humanitarian aid is also on the decline, putting aid programs at risk. It began creeping backwards in 2023, with a 31 percent reduction from 2022 levels, then a 5 percent decrease in 2024, and an expected 25 percent decline in 2025.

“Program coverage by humanitarian actors has been severely reduced, and rations have been sharply cut, forcing reductions even for highly vulnerable populations,” according to the report. “Food assistance for refugee operations is at a breaking point. WFP targets 10.8 million refugees with food assistance across 43 countries; of these, 40 refugee operations are facing funding shortfalls in the six months from September 2025 to February 2026.”