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CENTRAL ISRAEL, ISRAEL - 1 October: Ballistic missiles were launched from Iran against Israel and intercepted in the sky. Iran launched approximately 180 ballistic missiles at Israel, with many intercepted with U.S. assistance, though some struck central and southern Israel, according to the Israeli military. (Photo by Matan Golan/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)

Israel, Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran: Where Is It All Headed?

When Hamas launched a broad terror attack against Israel on 7 October 2023, one of the immediate fears was that Israel’s response could spiral into a wider Middle East conflict. Nearly one year later, those fears appear closer to realization as Israel has engaged with Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran launched a missile barrage of at least 180 ballistic missiles at Israel as direct conflict between the two countries escalates.

This is a developing story, so for breaking news please reference the Associated Press or Reuters live update pages. For our Today in Security coverage, we will point to different opinion and analysis pieces to give security professionals a broader context to think about how the expanding Middle East conflict could affect their interests.

Will Israel and Iran continue limited strikes or will they begin a larger scale war? What will U.S. involvement look like? These are the key questions according to The New York Times correspondent David E. Sanger. He wrote that the events of the last few days, including Israel’s attack that killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, Israel moving troops into Lebanon, and Iran’s missile launch, may be the turning point.

“To many Israelis, the escalation was inevitable,” he wrote, “another chapter in a struggle for survival that began with the nation’s creation in 1948.”

With Hezbollah crippled, Israel is emboldened and Iran is vulnerable. BBC International Editor Jeremy Bowen explained that Tuesday’s missile attack from Iran was different than a barrage of missiles it fired in April. The April attack was a message; the Tuesday attack was designed to do damage. That neither assault was able to effectively penetrate Israeli defenses is beside the point.

“I would not rule out attacks by Israel on anything at the moment—nuclear sites, petrochemical facilities, anything that could cause damage to the Iranian economy,” he wrote.

Bowen described Hezbollah, and its operations in Lebanon, as an effective barrier between Israel and Iran. “The deterrent Iran had, you could argue, is not just gone—it’s smashed into a thousand pieces,” he wrote. “So, I think the Israelis are feeling more free to act.”

One result of the recent strikes may be delaying the acquisition of nuclear weapons by a dangerous state. The New York Times conservative columnist Bret Stephens wrote that “Now’s the time for someone to do something about” Iran’s nuclear program, which has been reported to have, or be close to having, the uranium needed to create a nuclear bomb.

Stephens said Israel is likely to strike at that capability, and he called on the United States to join Israel in using force, and threats of force, to bring Iran, as well as its proxies in Gaza, Lebanon, and Yemen, to heel.

The danger of World War III. Dan Perry, former chief editor of the Associated Press in Europe, Africa, and the Middle East and an expert on Israel, laid out three scenarios:

  1. A muted response from Israel meant to limit escalation.

  2. A significant strike against an oil installation or military target that would do significant infrastructure or military damage to Iran.

  3. Attempt a strategic overhaul of the balance of power in the Middle East.

Perry noted that the second option could eventually lead to the third option becoming reality. And it's that third scenario that he said, given the burgeoning relationship between Iran, Russia, and China, that could lead to a World War III scenario.

“If Iran responds forcefully, the U.S. would almost certainly be drawn into the conflict to protect Israel,” he wrote. “This could trigger a chain reaction, with Russia and China, both of whom have strategic relationships with Iran, seeing an opportunity to exploit the chaos. China could use the distraction to finally make a long-threatened move on Taiwan, while Russian President Vladimir Putin might take the opportunity to expand his war in Ukraine, or press into neighboring countries.”

Why Iran is taking the risk of escalating attacks on Israel. Shahram Akbarzadeh, deputy director of the Alfred Deakin Institute for Citizenship and Globalisation, said on a post in The Conversation that Iran was feeling political pressure to respond to Israel, particularly after the conflict broadened to include Lebanon. “Fighting Israel is very much a pillar of state identity in Iran,” he wrote. “The Iranian political establishment is set up on the principle of challenging the United States and freeing Palestinian lands occupied by Israel. Those things are ingrained in the Iranian state identity. So, if Iran doesn’t act on this principle, there’s a serious risk of undermining its own identity.”

The long range picture may not be as bleak as it looks. Frederick Kempe is president and CEO of the Atlantic Council. He acknowledged that there is likely to be escalation, but that it’s possible the escalated hostilities that started with Hamas’s attack on 7 October 2023 could ultimately lay the groundwork for the “emergence of a dynamic, peaceful, modernizing Middle East.”

Kempe noted it took Europe two catastrophic world wars to begin to resolve its tensions—tensions that 80 years after the end of the Second World War are still playing out in armed conflict in the war between Russia and Ukraine.

He added that “the countries that signed the Abraham Accords with Israel haven’t abandoned hope of returning to the course of normalization, which will be crucial if Israel is to turn the tide on what has become the most existential threat to the Jewish state since the 1973 Yom Kippur War. None has cut off relations with Israel, nor disassociated themselves from the accords.”

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