Global Risk Forecast Warns of More Geopolitical and Technological Strife in 2026
Crisis and risk management firm Crisis24 released its Global Risk Forecast 2026 report. The report reinforced many of the themes in a risk outlook covered in Today in Security last week: Escalating geopolitical instability hotbeds and rapid technological advancement—particularly in artificial intelligence (AI) and drone capabilities—combine to create an incredibly complex, hard-to-manage risk environment.
Both reports cited the need for speed in gathering, analyzing, and acting on intelligence. “Amid this complexity, advantage will depend on foresight and agility,” Crisis24 said in its report. “Organizations that embed live intelligence into decision-making, clarify decision authority, and build flexible recovery mechanisms will adapt at speed—anticipating disruption, acting decisively, and protecting people and operations.”
Crisis24 also provided specific risk forecasts for different regions. Here’s a look at some of the top concerns they see in each of those reasons.
Americas: Organized Crime in Latin America
Criminal activity from major drug cartels will enter “a new technological phase.” Cartels are likely to vastly expand use of aerial and aquatic drones in transportation operations, as weapons against authorities and rivals, and in surveillance of authorities and potential kidnapping targets.
Cartels also will increase their use AI to attempt to deceive organizations or authorities with deepfakes (particularly voice deepfakes), the outlook predicted.
Finally, cartels will continue diversification into illegal activities other than drugs and extortion, such as illegal mining.
“Taken together, these examples underscore a broader trend: Latin American organized crime groups are no longer solely reliant on drug smuggling, instead diversifying their criminal portfolios and modernizing through rapid technological adoption,” the report forecasted. “For businesses, the 2026 threat environment will be shaped by drones, AI-enabled scams, cyber intrusions, and physical violence. Proactive operational risk assessments and planning will be critical to safeguard operations, assets, and personnel in Latin America.”
Other major concerns covered in the Americas section: how the 2026 World Cup increases risk in host cities and the potential for increasing lone actor acts of violence in the United States.
Europe: The Ongoing War in Ukraine
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has led to three years of bitter armed conflict between the two countries and continues to play a central role when considering risk in the region.
Crisis24 said Russia will continue to successfully drive a wedge between the United States and its European NATO allies. The two sides have vastly different outlooks on how to best treat Russia in the drive to resolve the war, with the United States seeking to establish more normalized relations with Russia while European countries see Russia as a direct threat. This presents many risks to multinational organizations.
“Multiple sectors of the Russian economy will remain under sanctions through 2026,” the report said. “In the unlikely event that the U.S. lifts some sanctions to allow for the return of a select group of major U.S. businesses, those companies would still face operating in violation of EU, UK, and G7 sanctions, as well as reputational harm and Russian countersanctions. In this environment, companies based in countries not closely aligned with Western nations will likely seek to capitalize on the thawing of U.S.-Russia relations and the increasingly uncoordinated sanctions regime.”
Another major concern covered in the European section: authoritarianism and political unrest and instability.
Asia-Pacific: Geopolitical Conflicts Leading to Supply Chain Disruptions
The South China Sea and Taiwan Strait are critical supply chain shipping corridors. While Crisis24 does not foresee a major armed conflict in the area, they do expect moderate flare-ups to occur as territorial claims are challenged and China-Taiwan tensions continue to grow.
Businesses should be prepared for shipping interruptions and increased insurance costs as moderate-level incidents, such as ship ramming, water cannon attacks, and other tactics, threaten an escalation. Ultimately, the Crisis24 report did not predict that such an escalation is likely, but the disruptions will still have significant impact.
“While a major or sustained conflict is unlikely,” Crisis24 said in the report, “triggers heightening the risk of a limited escalation in 2026 include: assertive joint maritime patrols or facilitated naval transits involving the US and Indo-Pacific Middle Powers (Australia, Japan, South Korea), a buildup of perceived military infrastructure on reclaimed land, and unilateral energy exploration projects in disputed waters.”
Other major concerns covered in the Asia-Pacific section: Thailand-Cambodia border tensions, drastic changes in global trade practices and policies, and nationalism and rising geopolitical frictions.
Middle East and North Africa: Israel-Hamas Conflicts Continue to Shape Risk
NATO member Turkey named Israel a “terror state” and several countries, including Australia, Canada, France, and the UK, officially recognized the state of Palestine. These actions show a schism between the United States, which has staunchly defended Israel, and other traditional U.S. allies.
Crisis24 expected more countries to recognize Palestine and call for a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestinian issue.
“Diplomatic pressure will likely increase in 2026, and the growing perception of Israel as a pariah within the international community—even if largely rhetorical—will contribute to a rise in anti-war and anti-Israeli protests and boycotts across the globe,” Crisis24 said in the report.
Other major concerns covered in the Middle East and North Africa section: Related to Israel-Hamas conflicts, a re-escalation of Israel-Iran tensions and resulting regional destabilization is a significant risk factor organizations with Middle East interests should prepare for, North Africa will remain unstable and autocratic, and all of these conflicts are likely to have negative effects on travel, supply chains, and cause other business disruptions.
Worldwide
Overall, the report highlighted two driving trends:
- A polarized, transactional world amplifies geopolitical volatility.
- Technology multiplies risk and opportunity as adversaries adopt and adapt at pace.
“Together, these themes define a world that is faster, more connected, and harder to predict,” summarized Crisis24’s Mick Sharp and Sally Llewellyn in the report’s foreword. “The challenge—and opportunity—for organizations is to turn awareness into advantage. The Global Risk Forecast distills the signals that matter, helping leaders anticipate disruption and act decisively to strengthen resilience and protect people and operations—even in the most demanding physical and virtual environments.”
