ATF Analysis of Firearms Trafficking Highlights Rapid Rise of Ghost Guns and U.S. Firearms Used Abroad
Criminals are increasingly making and using privately made firearms (PMFs) and transforming weapons into machineguns to carry out illegal activity in the United States, according to a new volume of the National Firearms Commerce and Trafficking Assessment (NFCTA) released this week by the U.S. Department of Justice’s Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF).
“Between 2017 and 2023, the number of PMFs reported to have been recovered in crimes increased almost 1,600 percent,” wrote ATF Director Steven M. Dettelbach in Protecting America from Trafficked Firearms: NFCTA Updates, New Analysis, and Policy Recommendations. “Nearly 1,700 were associated with homicide-related offenses and more than 4,000 were associated with other violent crimes. Increasingly, these reported recoveries include machinegun conversion devices (MCDs), which are small, easily concealed devices that transform a semi-automatic firearm into an illegal machinegun in seconds.”
The ATF’s analysis found that the number of MCDs recovered in crimes increased 784 percent between 2019 and 2023, and Dettelbach assessed that this rapid uptick poses a “grave public safety threat and a threat to the lives of law enforcement officers.”
This new volume of the NFCTA is the fourth and final volume of an initiative that began in April 2021 when U.S. President Joe Biden and U.S. Attorney General Merrick B. Garland directed the ATF to lead a research group to conduct a comprehensive study of criminal gun trafficking. The fourth volume is focused on how firearms reach criminal actors, along with the role of the ATF and its partners in disrupting these networks using Crime Gun Intelligence.
“While this report is a repository of invaluable information, the report’s most significant finding is that background checks are a crucial tool to help prevent felons, traffickers, and other dangerous people from arming themselves and hurting others,” Dettelbach said in a statement. “While the decision about whether to expand background checks is certainly up to policy makers, this report’s immense data and expert analysis shows conclusively that background checks save lives—period.”
The Rise of Firearm Manufacturing and Legal Exports
Between 2017 and 2023, the United States manufactured 76.1 million firearms, imported 41.5 million firearms, and exported 4.3 million firearms. The ATF also estimates that during this timeframe, 91.6 million firearms were transferred using Federal Firearms Licensees through retail sales to consumers.
Between 2000 and 2009, the dominant firearm type manufactured in the United States was the rifle. But pistol manufacturing surpassed it in 2010 and has continued to lead the manufacturing market, reaching 47 percent of all Gun Control Act (GCA) firearms manufactured and distributed domestically annually by 2021 (14,581,763 pistols).
“Pistols accounted for 39 percent of GCA firearms manufactured domestically in 2023 (3,730,053 of 9,484,030), reflecting a 46 percent decrease from 2021 domestic production numbers (6,880,092 of 14,581,763),” the ATF assessed.
Firearm suppressors are also rising in popularity, with manufacturing of the devices—sometimes referred to as silencers—increasing more than 8,000 percent between 2000 and 2023. The ATF found that silencers now account for 83 percent of all National Firearms Act-regulated manufacturing.
While many firearms are distributed for legal sale in the United States, they are also exported to other countries where they might ultimately be used for criminal activity. ATF found that between 2019 and 2023, 20,072 recovered crime guns were traced to legal U.S. exports. Nearly 49 percent of these guns were traced to legal exports recovered in Canada (9,813).
There was a dip in the number of traced U.S. manufactured firearms used in criminal activity abroad between 2019 and 2020 (47 percent), which the ATF attributes to the COVID-19 pandemic. Figures increased by about 40 percent between 2022 and 2023.
Rifles were the most commonly recovered firearm traced to a legal export (35.5 percent, 7,123), followed by pistols (33.4 percent, 6,709), shotguns (24.3 percent, 4,876), revolvers (6 percent, 1,201), and other types of firearms (0.8 percent, 163).
The Changing PMF Market
Sometimes referred to as ghost guns, PMFs are obtained without background checks and do not contain serial numbers.
“The PMFs that were initially identified by law enforcement agencies as recovered crime guns typically involved semi-automatic pistols made from firearm kits, such as ‘buy-build-shoot’ kits,” according to the report.
These kits typically contain a firearm frame and receiver, which purchasers then assemble to create an operational firearm. This methodology for selling and creating PMFs increased 6,600 percent between 2000 and 2022, but recently decreased 36 percent between 2022 and 2023, the ATF said. Recently, the ATF has identified an uptick in the use of 3D printers to create PMFs—such as the weapon that was allegedly used in the murder of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson.
PMFs also include MCDs—devices designed to convert semi-automatic firearms to fully automatic fire, also known as machineguns under the National Firearms Act. MCDs are usually designed to be used on AR-type firearms but have recently evolved to feature “switches” that allow them to be used on certain semiautomatic pistols, the ATF wrote.
Between 2017 and 2023, law enforcement recovered a suspected 92,702 PMFs.
“The total number of PMF recovered between 2022 and 2023 was 44 percent (54,722) greater than the total number of PMFs recovered over the five prior years (37,980),” the ATF explained. “This significant rise is likely attributable to both an increase in the number of PMFs being made and subsequently recovered by law enforcement, as well as developing law enforcement awareness for identifying and tracing recovered PMFs.”
Pistols were the most commonly recovered type of PMF—representing on average 4,509 PMF recoveries per year between 2017 and 2021. That figure jumped between 2022 and 2023 to an average of 18,197 PMF recoveries per year. Youths (18 to 24 years of age, 32.6 percent of possessors) and young adults (25 to 34 years of age, 28.2 percent of possers) also continue to make up about 50 percent of known possessors traced by law enforcement with a PMF.
“Between the 2017 to 2021 and 2022 to 2023 time periods, there was in increase of six percentage points (33 percent to 39 percent) in the percentage of possessors under the age of 25, representing a slightly more than 18-percent increase in market share,” the ATF found.
California averaged the highest number of recovered PMFs when tallied by U.S. state. Florida, however, accounted for the largest percentage of recovered and traced MCDs, with more than 17 percent of all recoveries.
Most PMFs are moved through the marketplace through unlicensed firearm dealing by private individuals (63.9 percent) and trafficking through unlicensed making (62.5 percent). The third most used form of trafficking was through online marketplaces (12.4 percent), followed by social media platforms (11.7 percent), and straw purchasers or rings (11 percent).
Domestic Trafficking
The ATF has observed some major changes in how firearms are moved through the United States and used for criminal activity.
Corrupt Federal Firearms Licenses (FFLs) were once a predominant method for trafficking firearms (representing almost 9 percent of cases in 2000) but have seen a significant decrease (less than 2 percent in 2023). PMFs were not previously considered a substantive pathway for criminals to acquire firearms, but that method is now in the top 10 of the ATF’s assessed trafficking channels.
Web and application-based sources are now being investigated by ATF special agents for firearm trafficking as frequently as gun shows, flea markets, and auctions. Stolen firearms accounted for slightly more than 22 percent of ATF trafficking investigations between 2017 and 2021.
Most ATF firearm trafficking investigations looked at a small number of firearms (a mean of 30 per investigation), and special agents identified at least one firearm trafficker in 80 percent of the cases during its study period. These traffickers tended to be white (53 percent), male (84 percent), and U.S. citizens (95 percent). Many of them had no known criminal activity (37 percent), some had a prior felony conviction (27 percent), and a few had a prior arrest without a known prohibiting conviction (16 percent). While most identified traffickers were male, females were the primary individuals involved in straw purchasing (72 percent).
The ATF has also identified three major pipelines for firearms trafficking in the United States: East Coast I-95 Pipeline, a Mississippi River Pipeline, and a Southwest Pipeline.
“In two of these pipelines, East Coast I-95 and Mississippi River, the percentage of the traced crime guns used in shootings was significantly higher than the national percentage,” Dettelbach wrote in the ATF’s analysis. “Nationally, about 6 percent of recovered and traced crime guns were associated with at least one shooting. In contrast, in the East Coast I-95 pipeline, 12 percent of recovered and traced crime guns were associated with at least one shooting, and in the Mississippi River pipeline 13 percent were associated with at least one shooting.”
Dettelbach added that the ATF’s analysis suggests that these two pipelines serve as a direct conduit of crime guns to violent criminals in their marketplace.
Firearms in Mexico
The fourth volume of ATF’s analysis looked at trends in firearms trafficking from the United States to Mexico, highlighting a 63-percent increase tracing of crime guns recovered in Mexico between 2017 and 2023.
Mexicans have a constitutionally protected right to bear arms, but they are restricted in the type, caliber, and quantity of firearms available for legal purchase. Purchasers are required to undergo a background check and register firearms in a comprehensive registry.
“The limited availability of lawful firearms in Mexico results in high demand, particularly among criminal organizations like the drug cartels, for firearms illegally imported from outside the country,” the ATF wrote. “For many years, successive Mexican governments have identified the U.S. as the primary source of illegally imported firearms.”
The Mexican government estimates that roughly 200,000 U.S.-sourced firearms are smuggled into Mexico each year. Guns used in crime in Mexico come from all U.S. states, but in 2023 most traced firearm recoveries in Mexico originated from Texas (43 percent), Arizona (22 percent), and California (9 percent). Five pipelines from the United States to Mexico represented 32 percent of all recovered crime guns traced to a purchaser.
Dettelbach explained in the introduction to the ATF report that this poses a serious issue, especially since 82 percent of traced crime guns were recovered in a Mexican state with a dominant cartel presence.
“The Arizona to Sonora pipeline was the most dominant, followed by Texas to Tamaulipas, Texas to Nuevo León, Texas to Chihuahua, and Texas to Guanajuato,” the report found. “82 percent of traced Mexico crime guns were recovered in a state with a dominant presence of both or either the Sinaloa or Jalisco New Generation Cartels.”
Pistols and rifles were the most frequently recovered guns used in crime in Mexico between 2022 and 2023, accounting for 50 percent and 33 percent of recoveries respectively. Suspected PMFs represented 9 percent of all firearms recovered and submitted for tracing in Mexico in the same time period, including pistols (49 percent; 2,197 guns) and rifles (38 percent; 1,708 guns).
Recommendations
Alongside ATF’s analysis, the bureau also made three main recommendations to curb firearm trafficking trends.
The first is to expand background checks, including by increasing ATF’s funding to investigate illegal trafficking accomplished by individuals who are not required to complete background checks at this time. An increase in funding would also help the DOJ in prosecuting and securing appropriate sentences for unlicensed firearms dealers who violate existing laws.
The second recommendation is for greater accountability for Law Enforcement Firearm Resale programs. ATF assessed that “over 25,000 firearms previously in the possession of law enforcement ended up at crime scenes between 2019 and 2023 alone.”
Instead of reselling firearms, the ATF suggested law enforcement agencies explore implementing mandatory destruction policies or policies that allow officers to purchase their issued service weapons instead of selling them to the general public.
The third major recommendation is to strengthen and expand the ATF’s Crime Gun Intelligence, which was used by a majority of law enforcement agencies across the United States.
“Funding expanded and comprehensive use of ATF’s eTrace and NIBIN tools by ATF and its partner law enforcement agencies will provide more investigative leads on violent gun crimes, enhanced strategic intelligence on violent gangs and other criminally active groups, and improve the apprehension and prosecution of violent gun criminals,” according to the ATF. “Increased funding would improve these results by allowing ATF to provide law enforcement a single, automated platform with these tools.”
