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U.S. Homeland Security Said Threat of Domestic and Foreign Terrorism Remains High

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) recently released its 2025 Homeland Threat Assessment, providing a big-picture look at the threat landscape.

The report, released on 2 October, indicates that the threat of domestic and foreign terrorism against the United States remains high. Other identified categories that threaten public safety and security include illegal drugs, influence operations, and transnational repression.

“The Homeland faces a complex set of threats to our public safety, border security, critical infrastructure, and economy from violent extremists, transnational criminal organizations (TCOs), adversarial nation-states, and malicious cyber actors,” according to the assessment. “These threats, while varied in scope and intended purpose, at times compound one another in unexpected ways, harming our communities and generating costly disruptions to the U.S. economy. Meanwhile, technological advances, climate change, and natural disasters have the potential to exacerbate many of the aforementioned threats.”

Terrorism

The anticipation of a continued high terrorism threat environment is due to the merging of several factors, including potential violent extremist responses to domestic sociopolitical events (especially the 2024 election and campaigns) and international events, according to the DHS assessment. The international events will likely be used by domestic and foreign extremists as justification for attacks.

“Lone offenders and small groups continue to pose the greatest threat of carrying out attacks with little to no warning,” the assessment said.

During 2023, domestic violent extremists focused on various targets, including ethnic and religious minorities, government officials, and ideological opponents, according to the report. They have also promoted swatting and doxing of ideological opponents and issued threats to court officers, migrants, government officials, and Jewish, Muslim, and Arab communities.

Meanwhile, homegrown violent extremists inspired by foreign terrorist organizations have mostly targeted faith-based organizations. Efforts by both groups focused on soft targets, such as houses of worship, a store, or a university.

The assessment also noted that domestic extremists and criminals will be the likeliest to use a chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear attack.

Illegal Drugs

“Fentanyl and other synthetic opioids remain the most lethal of drugs trafficked into the country, but small increases in overdoses linked to cocaine and methamphetamine highlight the danger from other drug types,” the report said. Drug abuse in the United States is responsible for roughly tens of thousands of deaths each year.

Although the amount of seized fentanyl is less than that of methamphetamine and cocaine, the synthetic opioid is a top concern because of its lethality and availability. There has also been a decrease in the amount of fentanyl seized compared to 2023, the amount—more than 27,000 pounds during the first 10 months of 2024—still indicates an overall high amount of the drug.

“DHS still seized enough fentanyl to kill the entire American population many times over,” the assessment said.

Organized criminal groups, notably drug cartels based in Mexico, remain the primary operators that smuggle fentanyl, methamphetamine, cocaine, and heroin into the United States.

The DHS expects fentanyl smuggling and seizures to remain high into 2025 thanks to cartels relying on user demand to keep their efforts profitable.  

Nation-State Operations

The DHS also expects that state actors will continue to threaten U.S. public safety, specifically pointing to China, Iran, and Russia. State actors affiliated with these nations will likely “use a blend of subversive, undeclared, criminal, and coercive tactics to seek new opportunities to undermine confidence in U.S. domestic institutions and domestic social cohesion,” the assessment said.

China and Iran are also expected to continue using transnational repression efforts to target ethnic and religious minorities, political dissidents, and journalists in the United States.

The report pointed to advancements in artificial intelligence, which could be used to increase the efficacy and speed with which seemingly authentic misinformation, disinformation, or malinformation is produced.

Russia. Russian state actors are expected to continue promoting pro-Kremlin narratives, with previous efforts including the amplification of stories about U.S. migration issues that have increased discord in the United States. Other issues such actors are focused on include justification for Russia’s invasion of and war with Ukraine.

Iran. Citing its foreign influence efforts as “increasingly aggressive,” the report said Iranian state actors will try to undermine the U.S. population’s confidence in democratic institutions.

During the past year, “Iranian information operations have focused on weakening U.S. public support for Israel and Israel’s response to the 7 October 2023 Hamas terrorist attack,” the assessment noted. Such operations included using ongoing protests about the conflict, posing as activists online, and encouraging protests.

China. Influence operations linked to the People’s Republic of China are primarily focused on discrediting the U.S. government and improving the PRC’s global standing.

By using increasingly sophisticated and advanced technologies, including AI, these actors are able to improve their ability to develop, refine, and spread disinformation. Targets have included U.S. disaster response operations, which could affect recovery efforts and place emergency management personnel, facilities, and survivors at risk.

 

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