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Top Risk Forecast for 2020

Transnationalism of the far right and tensions between the Persian Gulf States are the top two global security risks forecast for 2020, according to a report released this week by the risk management consortium The Healix Group of Companies.   

The report, Top Risks 2020: Potential Threats to your Organization, summarizes what Healix threat analysts forecast to be the top eight security, political, operational, and medical risks that organizations should be prepared for in 2020.

Writing about far-right transnationalism, the authors state: “The risk of far-right extremism has been steadily growing across the Western world, with high-impact attacks in Christchurch (New Zealand) and El Paso (Texas) demonstrating the increased intention of extremists to pursue aggressive actions.”

“One of the most concerning trends is the internationalization of the far-right threat,” the report continues. “Extensive far-right communities have developed using online forums and messaging sites, largely masquerading under the guise of free speech forums. These interactions are facilitating radicalization and recruitment, with likeminded individuals reinforcing each other’s views and beliefs.”

Tensions between the Gulf States are the other top forecasted security risk, according to the report. “Iran has continued to make adversarial maneuvers, increasing tensions with Saudi Arabia, the U.S., and Israel, which accuse Iran of attempting to destabilize the region,” the authors write.

In the political risk category, the report forecasts the two top threats in 2020 as the march toward trade protectionism, which could cause the United States and China to fall into recession, and identity politics that could cause unrest worldwide.

For more on global civil unrest, see the National Security column in the upcoming February edition of Security Management.