The intelligence landscape is evolving in response to an increasingly complex global threat environment. For high-profile events like the Olympics and elections, which attract significant international attention, the need for effective security measures is paramount.

The focus on preventing kinetic attacks such as bombings, shootings and assassination attempts has dominated intelligence efforts, with classified data sources and human intelligence (HUMINT) being the bedrock of security intelligence operations. With the rise in non-kinetic threats, such as cyberattacks and social media manipulation, which disrupt critical systems, influence public opinion, and undermine democratic processes, a different set of intelligence disciplines and skillsets, including open-source intelligence (OSINT) and data analytics, is needed.

That does not mean traditional operations are completely abandoned. Integrating traditional security intelligence tradecraft with newer techniques is essential for preventing and mitigating attacks that can now be executed using hybrid kinetic and non-kinetic tactics.

The Foundations: Classified Data and HUMINT

Classified data sources and HUMINT have long been integral to intelligence gathering.

Classified data includes covertly obtained information from surveillance, secure communications, and other clandestine methods. HUMINT involves gathering intelligence through human sources, including espionage, interrogation, and infiltration.

Both techniques offer advantages to deter and prevent kinetic events:

• Depth and Accuracy: Classified sources and HUMINT provide detailed insights into terrorist plans, organizational structures, and operational capabilities.
  
  
• Timeliness: These sources offer real-time intelligence, crucial for immediate responses to emerging threats. Intercepted communications and firsthand accounts enable rapid deployment of security measures.
  
  
• Strategic Insights: HUMINT can reveal long-term plans and strategic shifts within terrorist organizations, aiding in the development of comprehensive counter-terrorism strategies.
  

These cornerstones of security intelligence are not always able to stand on their own with the rise of non-kinetic events due to certain disadvantages:

• Limited Reach: The rise of small, organized criminal and decentralized terrorist cells complicates intelligence gathering. These groups often operate in isolation, making them difficult to infiltrate and monitor.
  
  
• Operational Risks: Infiltrating terrorist and organized criminal networks pose significant risks to agents, who must maintain credible false identities while avoiding detection by highly alert adversaries.
  
  
• Resource Intensive: Classified intelligence operations demand considerable financial and human resources. The complexity and scale of these operations can limit their frequency and effectiveness.
  
  
• Time Constraints: Building an effective HUMINT network is time-consuming, a luxury that may not be available when dealing with fast-moving threats from decentralized actors.

The Rise and Role of OSINT and Data Analytics

Global and domestic terrorism has become more dynamic, with nefarious organizations adapting to new opportunities and technologies. The rise of non-kinetic operations adds a new dimension to the threat landscape.

OSINT leverages publicly available information from various media, including social media and news outlets. Pertinent data can also be uncovered from the deep and Dark Web, where online forums, recruitment material, online stores, viral content, and leaked documentation can reveal operational insights into the structure and operation of these groups. Data analytics and sentiment analysis applied to this information can identify patterns, predict threats, and gauge public sentiment.

The advantages of OSINT help to counter gaps in HUMIT including:

• Broad Coverage: OSINT provides extensive coverage from diverse sources, offering a comprehensive view of potential threats and emerging trends.
  
  
• Cost-Effective: Collecting and analyzing open-source data is generally less expensive than covert operations, making it a valuable tool for monitoring and threat assessment.

• Predictive Capabilities: Sentiment analysis and data analytics can reveal intentions inadvertently disclosed by individuals or groups online, acting as an early warning system.

With that said, OSINT comes with its own set of disadvantages:

• Volume and Noise: The sheer volume of open-source data can be overwhelming. Irrelevant information (noise) must be filtered out, leading to delays in identifying genuine threats.
  
  
• Reliability Issues: OSINT can be susceptible to misinformation and propaganda. Verifying the accuracy and authenticity of open-source data is a persistent challenge, exploited by adversaries in influence campaigns.
  
  
• Delayed Action: Unlike classified sources, which can provide immediate and actionable intelligence, OSINT often requires significant time for analysis and validation.

And like HUMINT, there is a competition for resources. In this case, analyzing open-source data requires significant resources, and the technology often competes with other industries for access and capabilities. This competition can affect the availability and quality of analytical tools.

Integrating Intelligence Sources; Recruiting and Training Human Capital

To effectively address the evolving threat landscape, intelligence agencies and law enforcement must integrate (where possible) traditional classified data sources, HUMINT, and OSINT. In addition, they must recruit and train additional human capital with these new skill sets (artificial intelligence, machine learning, data analysis, etc.) to manage the large volumes of data and the analytics.

This integrated approach provides a more comprehensive understanding of the threat landscape and enables more proactive and effective countermeasures across different types of incidents. OSINT can provide initial indicators of potential threats, which can then be corroborated and further investigated using classified sources.

• Event Security and Risk Assessments: The integration of OSINT and classified intelligence is particularly valuable in securing high-profile events. By combining predictive analytics with detailed human intelligence, security forces can better anticipate and mitigate risks.
  
  
• Extremism and Civil Unrest: Monitoring online sentiment and communications helps identify the early stages of radicalization and unrest. This enables actions to prevent escalation.
  
  
• Executive Protection and Privacy: Ensuring the safety of high-profile individuals requires a balance between covert surveillance and open-source monitoring. Protecting privacy while gathering necessary intelligence is a critical challenge in this domain.

Achieving Integration

While the successful integration of security intelligence sources will be an ongoing endeavor, there are initial areas where integration can begin: 

• Enhanced Coordination: Effective integration requires improved coordination between different intelligence disciplines. Sharing insights from classified sources, HUMINT, and OSINT can yield a more complete threat picture and better-informed security strategies.
  
  
• Advanced Analytics: Leveraging advanced data analytics and artificial intelligence can enhance the ability to process and interpret large volumes of information. This capability is crucial for identifying patterns, predicting threats, and responding to emerging risks.
  
  
• Integration of Cross-Industry Insights: Drawing on advanced analytics capabilities developed in other verticals, such as retail and finance, can provide an edge in intelligence operations. These industries have pioneered techniques in data mining, sentiment analysis, and predictive modeling that, with appropriate modifications, can enhance intelligence-gathering efforts. However, it is important to recognize that these solutions are not one-size-fits-all. The unique demands of intelligence work require that these tools be carefully adapted to meet specific operational needs.
  
  
• Recruitment and Training: Recruiting and training personnel with skills in both traditional and modern intelligence techniques is essential. Public sector organizations must also adapt to competing with the private sector for top talent in data science and cybersecurity. Additionally, continuous professional development programs should be implemented to ensure that intelligence professionals remain proficient in the latest artificial intelligence-driven analytics tools and methodologies, which are becoming indispensable in this field.

The Future is Flexible and Multi-Faceted

The dynamic nature of terrorism necessitates a robust and adaptable intelligence framework for public safety, ensuring the success of high-profile events. Terrorist organizations adapt and exploit opportunities to demonstrate their presence, propaganda, and ability to influence critical events. To compete in that landscape, classified data sources, HUMINT, and OSINT need to be integrated into a robust framework to stay ahead of kinetic/non-kinetic events.

This integration requires the development and application of new technologies and the recruitment and retainment of personnel with the “traditional” intelligence skill sets, as well as a workforce trained in the new capabilities and technical disciplines.

Integrating these sources, leveraging advanced data analytics, and implementing an advanced artificial intelligence response team are essential to enhancing the U.S. posture for domestic and global security.

Paul Maguire is the co-founder and CEO at Knowmadics. He is a former intelligence officer with multiple deployments to the Persian Gulf and Southeast Asia. His expertise lies in specialized areas such as counter-terrorism, counter-drug, and personnel tracking and recovery operations.

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